In order to calculate an activity Float, first, we determine Late Start (LS) and Early Start (ES) values of the activity. However, unlike the triangular distribution the PERT distribution constructs a smooth curve which places progressively more emphasis on values around (near) the most likely value, in favor of values around the edges. The three we discuss below are the uniform distribution, the triangular distribution, and the PERT distribution. The first set of PMP formulas we will provide are related to Critical path method. Basically, we express it as the difference between earned value and the actual cost. The triangular distribution is useful in that it is easy to calculate and generate, but it is limited in its ability to model real-world estimates. Here is an implementation of the beta-PERT distribution in R, using the native beta function: For more information and a more detailed analysis, see (e.g.) It is one of the most common PMP formulas for control schedule. The PERT distribution also uses the most likely value, but it is designed to generate a distribution that more closely resembles realistic probability distribution. The PERT distribution is a special case of the beta distribution that takes three parameters: a minimum, maximum, and most likely (mode). We determine BAC during the cost management activities, more specifically in Determine Budget Process of a project. Accordingly, its formula is as follows: One of the most common PMP formulas for control cost is CPI. To construct probability models (like Monte Carlo simulations), you will need a range of estimates – a minimum and maximum value, and if possible, a “most likely” value as well. [1]  2019/12/27 01:33   Male / 20 years old level / High-school/ University/ Grad student / Very /, [2]  2019/10/01 11:55   Male / Under 20 years old / High-school/ University/ Grad student / Very /, [3]  2019/09/19 07:43   Male / 50 years old level / High-school/ University/ Grad student / Useful /, [4]  2019/09/15 02:12   Male / 40 years old level / Others / Useful /, [5]  2019/08/26 21:44   Male / 20 years old level / An engineer / A little /, [6]  2019/04/20 06:10   Male / 20 years old level / High-school/ University/ Grad student / Useful /, [7]  2019/04/08 03:20   Male / 20 years old level / High-school/ University/ Grad student / Very /, [8]  2019/03/07 22:27   Male / 20 years old level / High-school/ University/ Grad student / Very /, [9]  2019/02/25 19:40   Male / 20 years old level / High-school/ University/ Grad student / Very /, [10]  2019/02/04 13:51   Male / 20 years old level / High-school/ University/ Grad student / Useful /. Depending on the values provided, the PERT distribution can provide a close fit to the normal or lognormal distributions. This means there are around 10 to 20 questions, so it seems a pretty small portion right?! The beta distribution is characterized by the density function, $$ f(x) = \begin{cases} \frac{x^{v-1} \left ( 1-x \right )^{w-1}}{B(v,w)} & 0 \le x \le 1 \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$, $$ F(x) = \begin{cases} \frac{ B_{x}(v, w) }{ B(v, w) } & 0 \le x \le 1 \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$. Copyright © 2005-2020 Structured Data, LLC • All Rights ReservedMicrosoft® and Excel® are trademarks or registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation. - No Credit Card Required. Like the triangular distribution, the PERT distribution emphasizes the “most likely” value over the minimum and maximum estimates. Accordingly, if an activity is on the critical path, float (slack) of that activity will be zero. I find it very reliable when asking team members and people with experience in performing the activities they wish to estimate to use this method in estimating the duration of the work they are going to perform . If you did not receive, make sure you check your spam folders and add to safe senders list to receive our emails. Should you have any questions, you can email us at [email protected]. Moving the mode skews the distribution (try 0, 10, and 40). To calculate the end of the range you add the Standard Deviation to Estimated Activity Duration. Do you have troubles with recalling PMP Formulas? We have prepared a PMP Formulas PDF including all these formulas. Accordingly, its formula is as follows: EAC=AC+(BAC−EV), Alternatively, Approach #2: It assumes that we expect the achieved cost performance till now will continue in the future. Number of Communication Channels=N*(N−1)/2, We usually use it in risk quantitative analysis to measure EMV of an opportunity or threat. We can find EAC value by 3 different approaches using EV, SPI and CPI values. The beta distribution has been applied to model the behavior of random variables limited to intervals of finite length in a wide variety of disciplines. The sample spreadsheets that are installed with the RiskAMP Add-in include a project/task model using the PERT distribution. Examples of the PERT distribution: compare the smooth curves to the triangular distribution, above. One of the parts that some PMP aspirants consider difficult is the math calculations. The RiskAMP function PERTValue uses these inputs to generate a random sample from the distribution: The scale, or λ (lambda) parameter, can also be used to modify the distribution: But use of the scale parameter is optional. Normal distribution. It is one of the most common PMP formulas. Thank you for your questionnaire.Sending completion. It’s easy to see that most real-world situations don’t fall into this model, and in many cases it’s possible to get an additional estimate of the expected, or most likely, value. Note that, these formulas will be under two headings: Let’s go over them one-by-one and learn the details of each PMP formula.

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